Paddy Power Football Betting

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How You Test Your Betting System

Hey guys, I wrote a little starters guide about testing your betting system I thought may be helpful
I don't want to break any rules so, this is the post - https://valuebettingblog.com/testing-your-betting-system/ But I've pasted it all below so you don't have to leave reddit.
Hopefully its somewhat helpful!
If you don’t know how to test your betting system, you’re flying blind. I’ll breakdown why we test, the forms of testing and the methods you can use.
You could call every stage of betting a form of testing:
While you are gathering information to create the grounding of your system; you’re testing.
Once you have your method and are trialling and backtesting; you’re obviously testing.
Then, when you are using your system, successfully or unsuccessfully, you are also testing with every subsequent bet.
Knowing how to analyse your system is an absolute non-negotiable in creating and maintaining profitable betting systems.

Why We Test (Rigorously)

This seems kind of obvious. If you don’t test something, you don’t know if it works.
But, that is just the beginning. We test comprehensively so that we don’t confuse variance with value.
To best explain how variance can affect our perception, I did a simple calculation:
Bets: 100Odds: 2.00Stake: 1% (proportional staking)Yield: -4%
This system, that is clearly unprofitable long-term, will make a profit 30.82% of the time...
If you were in that 30.82% and you were happy with this measly 100 bet trial, you may as well have not tested at all.
You’d be flying straight into the arms of bankroll bankruptcy as that -4% yield chipped away at your betting account and sanity.
We must test and we must test properly.
Use this spreadsheet to run the same simulation with whatever numbers you want - Profit-Probability

Testing Methods

All three of the listed methods should be used in one way or another.
Notice the absence of popular methods: 'intuition' and 'gut feel'...

Real Test (With A Small Bankroll)

The most simple way to test - trialling your own system with a smaller bankroll. A real test.
I polled some long-term profitable sports bettors for a recent article. There were some surprising answers, but it was no surprise that many of them recommended trialling with a small bankroll before committing any significant money. Sometimes for years.
This doesn’t mean winning 15/20 of the intuitive head to head bets that you placed because you had a good feeling about them. This means using your well-defined system over a period of months, sometimes years, and diligently logging 1000+ bets to validate or invalidate your betting system.
This method is great, it’s simple, and it works. But, it takes a long time. Spending years only to find your system is unprofitable would be wholly demoralising.
Betting volume is key here, if you are able to find ten value bets a day that fit the criteria of your system, you can get valuable, consequential data of 1000 bets logged in just over three months. But if not, it can be a slog.
This is where the backtest method is valuable.

Backtest

Luckily, every sports result and thousands of in-depth stats are available for free to every single one of you. It’s a beautiful ever-updated resource called the Internet.
The secret to testing and improving a system is simply to spend time going through past results and trying to find trends in the statistics.
Here is an example (don't use it):
Start with something to test - Over the past 500 games, Team A wins what % of games when the weather is below 15 Celsius?
First, you'll log the last 500 relevant games, using fbref.com for Football, bbref.com for Basketball, or any other database of results. Then, put all the relevant weather conditions into the same spreadsheet, giving you a correlation; in this case, it'll be a %.
55% of the time Team A wins in sub-15-celsius conditions. They must just love that cold weather and have superior weatherproof gloves than the rest of the competition...
With a 55% probability of occurring all we need to breakeven is odds of $1.82. If we can find odds of $2.00 we have clearly found odds above the required.
There are plenty above 2.00? Cool, now we’re rich.
Let’s be clear, this is a terrible inconsequential metric to backtest - but, the theory is that simple.
Oftentimes you will need to be testing multiple metrics against each other for 1000+ bets and failing many times before you find a system that succeeds with enough bet volume to be worth your time.
The benefit of backtesting is that you can spend the time doing it, right now. If you are trialling a system in real-time, you are waiting to log results week by week and season by season. Backtesting allows you to commit and spend as much time as you can right now finding a successful system.

Closing Line Testing

Across the board, there is no one smarter than the market. No One. More specifically, the market when it closes.
Over the long-term, the closing line; the odds at which the market closes, is analogous to the true probability of an event (minus the bookmaker margin). This is called the CLV (Closing Line Value) and it gives us something to compare ourselves to.
This general accuracy of the closing line is a product of many things:
First, the bookmaker publishes odds which they believe to reflect the true probability of an event, using the huge amount of resources at their disposal.
Next, bettors from all over the world bet on those odds. Recreational punters and serious punters.
Recreational punters bet on either side of the event, usually without much method. This barely affects the odds unless the bookmaker has made an obvious error.
Then, we have serious bettors, using their own analysis to find fault and value in the bookmaker odds - bookmakers react to the incoming bets, using these actions of highly regarded profitable bettors to help adjust the odds to the mutually calculated 'true odds' of the event.
It is essentially a battle between bookmakers and serious bettors, fighting it out to work out what the true probability of an event is. With a sea of recreational punters inconsequentially dancing around them and throwing cash at the bookmaker. A dizzying image.
That range between where the odds began and where they closed is where the value is.
To be clear, it’s not impossible to win money purely betting the closing odds. But, it is extremely hard. You are not only contending with the bookmaker’s initial analysis, but you are also contending with other serious sports bettors, the added information gathered by the bookmaker since the first odds were published, and the bookmaker margin.
So, the key to measuring yourself and your ability against the closing line is simple:
  1. Record the odds at which you placed the bet
  2. Record the closing line odds
  3. Calculate the bookmaker margin
  4. Calculate your implied yield
  5. Repeat 100’s of time...
For example, your system identified a market in which you believed the odds should have been 1.90-2.00, but you found odds of 2.05, a clear value bet based on your system.
The market then closed at 1.96, after removing the bookmaker margin of 2% the true implied odds would be 2.00.
Then to calculate the true yield you achieved, simply do: 2.05/2.00 = 2.5%
You have beaten the true closing line by 2.5%
Joseph Buchdahl wrote a great piece on Closing Line Value, showing the efficacy of testing against closing lines - Using the closing line to test your skill in betting.
Closing Line Value, as a theory, isn't bulletproof. But, it's strong and it may be the most reliable measure we have to test our systems.

Other Things To Test

Even a profitable system can be a failing system, let me explain how:

Time/Yield Ratio

Your time has a $ value. This is where the trialling method comes in.
If you spend two hours a day analysing markets and placing bets, and your average daily profit is $30, you are judging one hour of your time to be worth $15 - is that what your time is worth?
You have to know the cost in time and effort that is required by your betting system. Trial the system, see how long it takes you to place bets, compare odds, calculate stakes, and then evaluate the true cost of doing business.

Volume

So often neglected when people describe their betting systems. Volume > Yield.
Obviously, it's more nuanced than that. But, I'll take a system with a 2-3% yield with multiple bets per day over a system with a 10% yield but that only provides one bet per week. Every time.
The lower the volume, the longer it takes to test, and the longer it takes to compound your bankroll. If it's taking you three years to log 500 bets, your edge could be lost before you even get to profit from it.

Life/Bet Balance

You've backtested your system, it works, it's got the volume, the yield, and takes very little ongoing maintenance. You're all set, right?
Not quite. I bet on ITF tennis, many of those markets are released while late at night over here in Melbourne. Luckily, the odds often hold and I'm also a bit of a night owl. It's not a problem for me.
But, if you have to stay up to use your system, you have to evaluate whether it's worth it. If you work 9-5 and have to keep your phone ready during the day, that could threaten your job. You might not want to be checking your phone while spending time with your family in the afternoons. All things that need to be considered.
We are slaves to bookmakers and when they make odds available. Sometimes, your system just won't fit your life (so give it to me).

Bookmaker Availability

We all know this one, bookies don't like your winning system. They also have the power to cripple it.
Most bookmakers will limit or ban you for winning regularly and consistently in large volumes. Your backtests don't account for that, your small bankroll trials don't account for that.
First, assess how many bookmakers your system will work with. Then, open accounts with as many bookmakers as possible. The key to not being limited is spreading your bets across multiple bookies. Here is an article detailing some other ways to sidestep bookmaker limits.
Ask other bettors what their experiences are. You won't have to go far to find out that Pinnacle doesn't limit and Paddy Power does, quickly. Here is a list of some 'no limit bookmakers'.
Do your research, testing a system for a year and then being limited within a week would be extremely frustrating.

Conclusion

Are you convinced? Testing diligently is imperative to building a profitable method.
All a bit too much? There always is the option to outsource your betting analysis to a tipster or service. For that, I'll direct you to this article - Find The Best Tipsters (A Sceptics Guide)
A rigid plan and framework for building your betting system would be:
  1. Backtest your initial hypothesis, over a month, year, and multi-year period. Analyse closing lines for the backtested data.
  2. Trial your system with a small bankroll and reach 1000 bets. Analyse all bets against the closing line.
  3. Compare your backtest with your trial. Did your backtest have any oversights?
  4. Analyse the human aspects of your system. Were the bets too time-consuming to place? Did it cut into your family time?
  5. Analyse the logistics. How available were bookmakers, have you been told they are quick to limit? Is there enough volume?
  6. Decide if it's worth it.
  7. Profit
Time-consuming? Yeah. Important? YES.
Good luck with your betting systems.
Coming Soon - 'Testing Your Betting System: Advanced Guide'. In this guide, we will delve into P-Value, Forward Testing, and Blind Testing. Subscribe to be notified.
Happy (Value) Betting
submitted by HelloJakeSpeaking to sportsbook [link] [comments]

paddy power max winnings?

anyone able to help me find out if they are punking me... have a season long 100k acca bet going at the moment, i placed it wanting it to be 100k returns so i followed their max payout limits on each sport. asked them in the dm's to confirm it was 100k, and first they said yes, then the came randomly came out saying there is a 50k daily win limit on football, then i asked to confirm exactly what the payout would be if the bet won, they said bla bla bla if you done it by the calculator it's 100k, basically confused the fuck out of me, and now every time i go back and ask them again for confirmation cause they didn't make it clear, they tell me they've answered my query already, it's fishy as F, it's given me the feeling that they don't want to me to know it's 50k max limit because i can currently cash 50% of the ticket out to have the returns be 50k and i walk away with a profit already.
long story short, has anyone heard of a 50k limit of winning on football at paddy power??? or has anyone won a big bet at paddy and can confirm they paid out, what it said on the slip
submitted by OriginalBonus to sportsbetting [link] [comments]

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I have been a matched betting enthusiast for years and now I am teaching it for free to everyone.

Hey beermoneyukers!
After years working in my 9-5 job as a website developer for a large corporation I decided I could not face selling my soul any longer lols and packed in my job.
Since then, I had a stint working as a freelancer whilst also making a healthy side income via matched betting. And over the past 9 months I’ve been building a website that teaches people how to do the same.
There are a lot of websites out there that teach matched betting, but most require a monthly subscription and most have long articles that can be a bit dry and hard to follow.
So instead, I built a website, Team Profit, that:
  Is completely free
  Uses animated video guides to teach people (link)
  Has infographics to accompany all video guides
  Provides step by step guides for 25+ bookmaker offer which will make you £600+ risk free (link)
I have amended the video script over 50 times to try to make it as concise and helpful as possible, hopefully they are a good watch!
Any feedback on the videos, guides, blog or anything else, please let me know, I spend every day adding new content and improving existing content.
If you are thinking of learning matched betting and making £600+ risk free, please check it out!
www.teamprofit.com
 
MEGA FAQs GUIDE TO MATCHED BETTING
 
The video guides I posted above will teach you everything about matched betting.
However, I figure no harm in me writing down everything I know about matched betting in an FAQ style layout. Hopefully this will be useful to you.
I have tried to answer every question as concise as possible / no rambling :D
I have split the FAQs into the following sections:
 
INTRODUCTION
1) What exactly is matched betting and how I do make money risk free?
2) How popular is matched betting?
3) Does it involve gambling?
4) How much money will I need to start?
5) How much time will it take me to learn matched betting?
 
OFFERS & YOUR PROFIT
1) How much money can I make matched betting from the welcome offers (new customer only)?
2) How much is a free bet worth in actual cash profit?
3) After I have finished the Welcome Offers, how much money can I make matched betting each month from Daily Offers (existing customer offers)?
4) What type of Daily Offers are available?
 
BOOKMAKERS AND BETTING EXCHANGES
1) Which bookmakers have the best welcome offers?
2) Which bookmakers have the best offers for existing customers?
3) What is mug betting?
4) What is a betting exchange?
5) How do we use a betting exchange?
 
ADDRESSING COMMON CONCERNS
1) How sustainable is matched betting?
2) Will it impact my credit rating?
3) Do the bookmakers have terms to stop customers from withdrawing?
4) Do I need to know about sports?
 
WHICH WEBSITES TEACH MATCHED BETTING - YOUR OPTIONS
1) Where can you learn matched betting?
 
ADDITIONAL FAQS
1) Depositing and withdrawing
2) Sending identification documents
Any questions that haven’t been answered please add a comment and I’ll add the FAQ and answer.
 
INTRODUCTION
 
1) What exactly is matched betting and how I do make money risk free?
There are more than 25 online bookmakers in the UK. In order to attract new customers, they each offer free bets, known as ‘Welcome Offers’.
In total they offer over £800 in free bets to new customers.
In order to receive the free bet, bookmakers require you to place your first bet. An example offer is ‘Bet £5, Get £20 free bet’.
The risk is that you could lose both the £5 bet (your own cash) and the £20 free bet.
By using a technique called matched betting, we remove this risk.
This is because we match our first £5 bet on the bookmaker with a £5 bet on a betting exchange on the opposite outcome (this is known as a ‘lay bet’).
For example, we bet £5 on Man Utd to win on the bookmaker, and £5 on Man Utd not to win on the betting exchange.
As we have now bet on all outcomes, regardless of whether Man Utd win, draw or lose, we will neither win nor lose money. However, we have received the £20 free bet!
With the £20 free bet, we can now repeat this process by betting on say Liverpool to win on the bookmaker and Liverpool not to win.
This time, because we are using a £20 free bet but our winnings are paid out in cash, we will always make a profit.
We repeat this process for 25+ bookmakers, one by one. In total we can convert the £800+ in free bets to over £600+ in actual cash profit, in very little time at all.
 
2) How popular is matched betting?
Matched betting isn’t new and has been around since at least 2005.
However, it is only since 2015 that it has really increased in popularity due to the rise of websites teaching matched betting. You can see this trend here: Google Trends Link
By looking at the various matched betting sites popularity, a reasonable estimate is at least 25,000 people in the UK are matched betters. You can see a review of sites that teach matched betting in the ‘Which websites teach matched betting?’ section below.
 
3) Does it involving gambling?
This is the most common assumption with matched betting. You’d be forgiven for thinking that it did involve gambling simply because the name ‘matched betting’ would suggest it did.
However, matched betting does not involve gambling, you will never be risking a penny.
Because we are always covering the opposite outcome occurring, there is never any risk we will lose money. Furthermore, we still receive the free bets which we will where we make our profit.
The profitability and risk free nature of matched betting has been reviewed in the Daily Telegraph and the Guardian
 
4) How much will I need to start?
You can start with as little as you want, however the lowest I would recommend starting with would be £25.
With £25, you can start your first bookmaker welcome offer and make a deposit into your first betting exchange, meaning you can start making a profit.
For more details, see this Starting with £25 guide.
The downside, with only £25 you are restricted by having to wait for withdrawals before you can move onto the next offer.
Therefore, I would say an optimal amount to have available for your cash flow would be in the region of £200 as this allows you to complete multiple welcome offers simultaneously.
 
5) How long will it take me to learn matched betting?
To learn the principles of matched betting, it will take up to 20 minutes.
To become familiar with completing your first offer, I would set aside another 30-60 minutes so you can take your time and ensure you are completing it correctly.
For example, the video guides on Team Profit last a total of 21 minutes (8 minutes for the explainers videos and 13 minutes to watch the step-by-step real time example). Although they last just 21 minutes, some users watch certain parts of the video again to become comfortable with the process.
It is very much recommended to avoid trying to learn matched betting by yourself. There are thousands of experienced matched betters who can help you. For more details on this, see the ‘Which Websites Teach Matched Betting’ section.
If you need any help anytime, please do comment in this Reddit thread and I’ll help you out.
 
OFFERS
 
1)How much money can I make matched betting from the welcome offers (new customer only)?
From the welcome offer, you can make approximately £1,000 cash profit.
There are 25+ bookmaker offers available on sports for at least £600 profit. These are relatively straightforward offers and good value in terms of time to complete. It would take around 12 hours to complete these offers, which works around £40 / hour tax free. You can complete them over any time period you like.
There are at least another 5 bookmaker offers, such as Bet365 and BetVictor, though these require more time, you could make around £100 to £200. They require more time because the bookmaker requires you to bet many more times before you can withdraw.
Plus 20+ offers across casino and bingo, though some are not risk free and typically take more time to complete, but you should be able to make at least £200 profit from these offers.
So overall, there is an easy £600 profit risk free, then up to another £400 if it’s worth your time to do them.
 
2) How much is a free bet worth in actual cash profit?
A £10 free bet is worth between £5 to £8 in actual cash profit.
The reason for the range is because the higher odds you choose for your free bet, the more actual cash profit you will make.
For example, if you bet on a football team with odds of 2.0, the £10 free bet will convert to around £5 cash profit. Whereas if you bet on a football team that is unlikely to win, with odds of say 6.0, the £10 free bet will convert to around £8 cash profit.
Note though, the higher odds you choose, the more you will need in your betting exchange account in case the bet wins. For a detailed explanation with examples, read this free bet profit article.
 
3) After I have finished the Welcome Offers, how much money can I make matched betting each month (from existing customer offers)?
Anywhere from £100 to £1,000+ per month.
Bookmakers continue to run free bet offers to retain their customers, I refer to these as Daily Offers.
Daily Offers are typically less valuable than the welcome offers but still worth completing.
For example, rather than ‘Bet £5 Get £20’ that they offer to new customers, they may instead run ‘Bet £20 Get £10’ and on a particular football match.
I would say for people with a day job, aiming for between £300 to £500 a month is realistic. In terms of time required, for every hour you spend, you should make around £30 tax free.
So to make £300 a month, expect to spend around 2-3 hours a week. I’d say to earn more than this, you will likely need to accept a lower hourly rate and do some of the low value offers too.
If you are looking to make £1,000+, I’d expect you would have to be near full time and also be fortunate to keep your enough of your bookmaker accounts open for 12+ month period (what is mugging bet FAQ below).
 
4) What type of offers are available for existing customers?
 
Easy offers:
The most common easy offer on football matches is Bet £20 Get £10 free bet. Many bookmakers run this offer, though it will usually be on a particular football match.
The most common easy offer on horse racing is usually on SkyBet, who will run simple offers such as ‘Get £25 free bet if your horse comes 2nd or 3rd’.
There are also easy casino offers, such as ‘£5 risk free’, where you spin on slots and hope to win, if you don’t they’ll refund up to £5 of losses.
These offers can make you up to £300 per month (or £500 on a good month with European football) and are easy for those with a day job.
 
Harder offers:
If you are looking to make more than £300 to £500 a month, then you will need to spend time on Saturday’s completing horse racing offers on Channel 4 racing and during the week too, though Saturday’s are the most profitable.
Plus you will need to do more advanced offers such as football accumulator refunds, each way offers, though I will leave these aside given they could have their own separate thread :p
If you’d like to understand where you can learn more about these offers, see ‘Which sites teach matched betting?’ FAQ below.
 
BOOKMAKERS AND BETTING EXCHANGE
 
1) Which bookmakers have the best welcome offers?
 
There are 3 formats of bookmakers welcome offers.
 
‘Bet £X Get £Y free bet’ - these are the most straightforward. Simply place your first bet and receive a free bet.
This format of welcome offer, ranging from Bet £5 Get £20 to Bet £50 Get £50, is available on Coral, SkyBet, BetBright, Betfred, Paddy Power, BetStars, William Hill, Stan James, Betway, Ladbrokes, TitanBet, 32Red and MarathonBet.
 
‘Refunds’ (also known as Risk Free offers) - these are similar to Bet £X Get £Y free bet. The only difference is you only receive your free bet if your first bet loses, hence I refer to these offers are refund offers.
This format of welcome offer is, ranging from £10 to £50 refunds, is available on Bwin, Dafabet, UniBet, Totesport, 188Bet, SuperLenny, Genting and 888Sport.
 
‘Multi Bets’ - these welcome offers require multiple bets to be placed before receiving your reward. It can take form of a bonus which requires to bet £X amount until you can withdraw any winnings, or the form of a cash reward once you have bet £X amount.
This format of welcome offer is available on Bet365, BetVictor and some other bookmakers, however they often require such a large amount of betting that I haven’t included them in this list.
The quickest to complete are the Bet £X Get £Y due to their simplicity, then the next best are the ‘Refunds’ offers.
The Multi Bet offers can be very valuable (e.g. Bet£365’s offer is worth over £150 profit risk free) but can also require much larger deposits in order to place the bookmaker bets and lay these bets in your Exchange.
 
For details of each bookmaker offer, see this Welcome Offer List & Guides
 
2) Which bookmakers have the best offers for existing customers?
 
Bookmakers vary in their level of generosity to existing customers. This is a little subjective, but in my opinion, this is the ranking of bookmakers for existing customers:
 
Best: Bet365
Bet365 run a £50 Risk Free offer most months (sometimes twice a month during popular football months) which is worth £35. It is very quick to complete (less than 10 minutes) so for £35 to £70, or around £500 a year, it is a great offer.
Plus they have one of the best horse racing offers, up to a £50 risk free bet if your pick a winning horse with high odds. This is a profitable offer worth around £20-£30 a week, or up to £1,000 to £1,500 a year.
 
Second Best: SkyBet
SkyBet run regular £5 to £25 free bet offers on horse racing and football, plus regular £5 risk free offers in SkyVegas.
 
Third & Fourth Best: Coral and Paddy Power
Both these sites run regular horse racing, price boosts and football offers (Bet £20 Get £10 in particular), at least £20 to to be made on every week from these two sites.
 
Good: William Hill, Ladbrokes, BetStars, Stan James, Betway, Bwin, Betfred, Totesport, 188Bet, 888, BetVictor
All these bookmakers run offer(s) each week so it’s worth ensuring you have completed the welcome offer for each of these sites so you can take advantage of their daily offers for existing customers.
 
3) What is mug betting?
If you are only ever betting when you receive an offer, the bookmaker will no longer allow your account to receive free bet offers (this is known as being ‘gubbed’).
To get around this, you should place ‘mug’ bets. ‘Mug’ bets are simply bets that a ‘mug’ punter would place. Mug bets include £1 accumulators (betting on several teams to win) and betting on favourites without an offer.
Most advice suggests that for every offer you receive, you should place 2-3 mug bets.
If you are gubbed, it does kinda suck when you receive the email, as you can no longer profit from the bookmaker’s offers.
It is also becoming increasingly common as bookmakers are noticing more suspected matched bettors, due to its increasing popularity. My advice is to make money whilst you can and take sensible precautions to try to keep your account active.
For more details, see this Mug Betting article
 
4) What is a betting exchange?
A betting exchange is a marketplace for customers to bet between each other on the outcome of particular events. This differs from a traditional bookmaker because an exchange also gives you the ability to be the bookmaker yourself and take bets from other exchange users.
Standard bookmakers generate profit by offering odds that are in their favour. Betting exchanges explained in terms of how they generate revenue is they charge a commission on any winnings a player receives.
The two market leading betting exchanges are, Betfair and Smarkets.
For more details, Betting Exchanges Comparison.
 
5) How we use betting exchanges?
When matched betting, a betting exchange is used to place our lay bets (the opposite bet to our trigger bet). So when we place the trigger bet with the bookmaker on one outcome to release the initial free bet, we must also cover the opposite outcome so that if the bookmaker bet does lose we still win on the lay bet - making it risk free!
Similarly when we are placing the free bet bet with the bookmaker we then lay off that bet using the exchange and because we’re using a free bet but being paid out in cash, this is how we turn free bets into withdrawable cash.
We only ever use betting exchanges for lay bets.
 
ADDRESSING COMMON CONCERNS
 
1) How sustainable is matched betting?
Matched betting over the past 6-9 months has become harder. Most bookmakers have realised they are thousands of matched betters taking advantage of their offers and so have either reduced the generosity of their offers or have made the daily offers more complicated.
However, there is still intense competition between the bookmakers, meaning they will always run special offers to an extent.
By spending a few hours a week, you can still make £300 to £500 a month, whereas in past year(s) this figure could have been £500 to £800.
The biggest issue matched betters face is being ‘gubbed’. As explained in the mug betting FAQ, this is when a bookmaker restricts you from receiving free bets and bonuses.
There are various theories as to how a particular bookmaker decides to to gub a customer. Reasons include taking up too many offers, winning a high % of bets, withdrawing regularly, placing bets far in advance or at irregular times.
The truth is nobody really knows precisely why people gubbed. However, you can expect to get gubbed at some point from a particular bookmaker, it may be 2 months, it may be 2 years, it is hard to know.
I really think though that everyone can make up to £1,000 from the Welcome Offers and at least £300 to £500 a month without any problems. I think the issues comes when you are making £1,000+ every month which sooner or later bookmakers will catch up that you are taking up a lot of offers.
Having said this, some people say they have been making £1,000+ every month for years, so maybe it is possible if you are using a wide variety of bookmakers and consistently placing mug bets.
 
2) Will it impact my credit rating?
Having betting activity on your bank statement does not impact your credit rating.
The only thing to be wary of when making betting deposits and withdrawals is that it can affect your application for a mortgage. So if you’re planning on applying for a mortgage in the near future then I’d recommend using a separate bank account to that which you’ll be applying for the mortgage with.
 
3) Do the bookmakers have terms to stop customers from withdrawing?
The vast majority of welcome offers do not have any withdrawal restrictions.
A handful of welcome offers do but this will be state in the terms and conditions. It is much easier though to use a matched betting website as they will clearly highlight the key terms of each offer (see ‘Which websites teach matched betting’ section below).
Casino offers will almost always have withdrawal restrictions, however for the matched betting welcome offers we are focusing on sports betting.
 
4) Do I need to know about sports?
Not at all! You do not need a sports background or have any sort of betting knowledge, many matched betters do not know anything about sport or betting before learning matched betting.
You may learn matched betting a little faster if you have sports betting experience but it really isn't important at all.
 
WHICH WEBSITE TEACH MATCHED BETTING - YOUR OPTIONS
 
There are 30+ websites that three key stages to matched betting:
Stage 1) Learning matched betting
Stage 2) Completing the Welcome Offers (for new customers)
Stage 3) Profiting in the long term from Daily Offers (for existing customers)
Below I have tried to cover the main sites that will help you with each of these stages.
 
In summary, I may be biased :p but I think the:
Stage 1) and Stage 2) best approach is to use TeamProfit.com
Stage 3) Join a paid membership site, either OddsMonkey.com, ProfitAccumulator.co.uk or ProfitMaximiser.co.uk to continue to make money from the Daily Offers.
 
FREE SITES:
 
TeamProfit.com (link)
I really believe Team Profit is the best site to learn matched betting and complete the welcome offers, but compare us to the other sites and see what you think!
Learn matched betting with animated videos (link)
25+ Welcome Offers using the step by step guides (link)
A free Facebook group to provide help to you anytime you need (link).
 
MoneySavingExpert.com (link)
The advantage of MoneySavingExpert is the sheer volume of content, covering all aspects of matched betting.
The disadvantage of MoneySavingExpert it is not well structured as it is just one forum with a long lists of posts so it takes quite a while to find relevant threads and miss key information.
 
MatchedBettingBlog.com (link)
The advantage of MatchedBettingBlog is the clear layout of the daily offers posted each day for with step by step instructions. It’s a good site to check to avoid missing the best and easier daily offers. The forum community also helps to post additional offers on top of those listed on the homepage, and also provides general advice on completing daily offers.
The disadvantage of MatchedBettingBlog is it is relatively limited in terms of teaching matched betting and does not provide a clear list of welcome offers. Also, for those looking to make £500+ every month, it doesn’t provide any software to help with the more advanced types of matched betting with daily offers, such as horse racing refunds and accumulator refunds, that the paid member sites offer.
Additional free matched betting sites include:
Matchedbettingfree.co.uk (link) (Reddit thread link)
Freebets4all.com (link)
 
PAID SITES:
 
Paid sites usually charge £15 to £25 a month.
In return, they will teach matched betting, provide list of welcome offers and provide daily offers too. Additionally, most paid sites will also provide software that helps to make you more money plus save you time.
 
OddsMonkey.com (link | non)
OddsMonkey charge £15 per month or £150 per year.
They are the most well known provider of matched betting software. Earlier this year, they added the full range of matched betting services, so now they provide all of the below:
Tutorial articles
Welcome offer step by step guides
Daily offers calendar
Software: OddsMatcher, Horse Racing Refunds, Tennis Refunds, range of calculators and spreadsheet
Forum
The advantage of OddsMonkey is the exceptional value. They have the best range of software and tools for matched betters to maximise their profits, are consistently bringing up new tools at no added cost. At only £15 per month it is one of the best options to consider.
The only disadvantage is the forum is not as busy as the next two options, ProfitAccumulator and Profit Maximiser. Though the forum is still a sufficiently active to ensure any questions have you are answered quickly.
 
Profit Accumulator (Link - Chazmer87's I don't have one | non)
Profit Accumulator charge £23 per month or £150 per year
Profit Accumulator helped to bring matched betting to the main stream with a highly active community. There are clear similarities between OddsMonkey and Profit Accumulator in terms of their high standard of software and offers.
The advantage of Profit Accumulator is their very active community. There is a great deal of advice in virtually every aspect of matched betting and the information is all well structured. Plus they have a very good offers coverage.
The only disadvantage to Profit Accumulator is the higher cost. The membership itself is £23 per month, plus their version of the Horse Racing Refunds software is £10 per month, or £115 a year. So in total you are paying £33 per month versus OddsMonkey’s £15 per month.
 
Profit Maximiser (Link | non)
Profit Maximiser is run by the original matched betting guru Mike Cruickshank.
Mike has been building software for matched betters for many years and has a very active Facebook Group.
Each piece of software is sold separately, I believe the below is accurate, each have their own £1 free trials:
Bonus Bagging £27 plus VAT - provides a list of all welcome offers and teaching (Link | non)
Profit Maximiser £97 plus VAT - provides all daily offers (Link | non)
Each Way Sniper £47 plus VAT - provides a horse racing betting system (Link)
Accumulator Generator £149 plus VAT - provides a football betting system (Link)
I believe Mike may have a couple more tools, if so I’ll edit this post if you could please comment / send me a message.
The advantage of Mike’s products is that there is no monthly recurring fee, so if you intend to do this for many months, it may work out profitable to do so. Plus from what I understand their Facebook Group finds some lucrative casino loophole offers faster than other matched betting providers.
The disadvantage of Mike’s products is that you have to buy each product separately rather than having it all within one simple account. Additionally, the total cost if you were to buy all 4 above listed products is £320 + VAT (total cost £384) whereas you could receive all these tools for £15 per month from Oddsmonkey. Having said that, Mike’s products do come with a £1 free trial, just be careful to cancel before the trial ends if you don’t want to continue.
Additional free matched betting sites include: Yes Bets link
Pure Profit link
 
ADDITIONAL
 
1) Depositing and withdrawing
To ensure you qualify for the Welcome Offer, use a bank card to deposit into your newly set up bookmaker account. Most sites will allow Paypal too though check the terms and conditions.
If you use Skrill or Neteller, typically you will not qualify for the Welcome Offer (bookmakers have this rule to prevent fraud) but you can check the terms and conditions.
Withdrawing is easy, you should receive your funds within 1-3 working days depending on the bookmaker.
 
2) Sending identification documents
Occasionally, bookmakers may require to send in identification documents (passport or drivers licence for example) and a copy of your bank card. This is to prevent fraud. This usually happens if you are not listed on the Electoral Roll or there is a difference between your home address and billing address. Simply take a photo of the documents they ask for and email them back.
 
THAT COMPLETES THE MEGA FAQ GUIDE TO MATCHED BETTING!
 
If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please do post a comment thanks!
 
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